Is Gaming In a Rut?
A Look at a New Debate
There’s been a debate lately about whether gaming might be in a rut. Of course, this has led to a debate about how true the statement is. I thought about it, and I think the answer is mostly no, but there is some merit to why you could feel it is.
First, let’s look at why gaming isn’t in a rut. Developers are indeed bearing a tough road with layoffs, but the industry is not losing money. If anything, developers are being laid off due to corporate greed more than anything. The industry is making good money, and revenues are hitting new highs. Last year, video games had a crazy year in terms of quality. I haven’t seen that many Game of the Year contenders in a long time. You could make a case for any game as your favorite game, and I couldn’t debate with you about it. I would make the case that from a software standpoint, 2023 is in the argument for the best year in gaming.
So, what about the outlook for gaming? It’s pretty bright, despite what many naysayers say on social media. Xbox, for all the shots it takes, has a really solid lineup on the way. Titles like Indiana Jones, South of Midnight, Clockwork Revolution, Fable, Avowed, Perfect Dark, and more. Nintendo has an exciting successor to their highly successful Switch system on the way, and we know they’re gonna bring out the big guns to kick off that system. I expect to see some of the most beautiful games the company has made with the new horsepower. There’s even a chance we get a Mario game as revolutionary as Super Mario 64. PlayStation? Well, I think the next showcase will reveal some good stuff, and even this year we have Final Fantasy VII Rebirth and Stellar Blade. Third parties? We got some cool handheld gaming hardware and massive titles like Star Wars Outlaws, Grand Theft Auto VI, and who knows what else will be revealed this summer.
So how can gaming be in a rut when it's still making money, the games are there, consoles are still selling relatively well, and we have new exciting hardware on the horizon? Well, that’s why I think the answer is no. Video games are not in a rut, if anything there’s plenty to be excited about no matter what type of gamer you are. However, I do think there is smoke in this fire. While I would argue that gaming isn’t in a rut, I do think that there is what former President Jimmy Carter would call “a crisis of confidence.”
The late 1970s was a rough time for America. Inflation was running crazy, even worse than today, and oil shocks shook the economy. President Jimmy Carter would have to steer the ship through the rough waters. He even coined the term “crisis of confidence” to explain to Americans that the American spirit seemed broken. And he was right; it even cost him his re-election. This is to say that I think the gaming consumer is where Americans were in the late 70s; there is a crisis of confidence.
Gamers have so many exciting things on the horizon that you question why they feel almost depressed. I would make the case that there are two reasons why. The first is that a huge chunk of console gamers see the industry changing and are going through something similar to the five stages of grief. The second is that gaming is in a transitional period, which we haven’t seen since the early 90s. I’ll start with the grief gamers are going through.
Millennials are, in many ways, the main video game console consumers. We grew up with the console industry and are the main ones buying them up and reminiscing about the “good old days” of gaming. This is why nostalgia in video game social media circles works. We want to be transported when consoles were more custom and different than today. We want gaming to stay with physical media and don’t care for live-service gaming. We want console generations with major leaps and every console to feel new and different. But these things and more are going away. Slowly but surely, we see the industry we grew up with transforming into something new. Gen Z and future generations are less excited about sticking to consoles or physical media. They’re growing up in a different world.
I believe many of us are taking this almost as a death in the family. In many ways, we are going through the five stages of grief. Many are excited about the new games, but then you turn around and see that digital console variant, see how weak the console graphical leaps have become, and see the growth of live service games. It’s all of this and the wish to return to what you want gaming to be is creating this feeling that gaming is, for the lack of a better word, dying. This, to me, is the biggest reason people feel gaming is in a rut. They see the changes, and they don’t want it. They still hope that things will begin to become how they remembered them.
Lastly, gaming is in a transitional period we haven’t seen since the early 90s. If you look back at gaming in the 16-bit era, something was happening underneath the surface. While Nintendo and Sega fought, the industry was ready to transition to a new world. They were ready to ditch cartridges for CDs, ready for 3D video games, and ready to go more mature. The problem was the consoles weren’t ready. Sega chased these with expansions like the Sega CD and the Sega 32X. Nintendo even got in on the action with their doomed Sony partnership and released some early 3D titles such as Star Fox. We even got a bunch of failed consoles that tried to leapfrog to the era we knew was coming but weren’t ready for. Finally, the PlayStation and Sega Saturn launched us into this new era. Now, games had 3D capabilities, were optional media entertainment centers, and CDs opened up the storage to make bigger games and more mature stories.
I think that’s happening now. I believe AI upscaling and machine learning will change video game consoles. This is more of a prediction than a fact, but I think AI will change video games and hardware. Now, whenever you bring up AI, I have to clarify that I am not talking about replacing artists, writers, or even developers. I’m talking about tools to help developers make games faster and eliminate crunch. I’m talking about upscaling that helps with performance and potentially makes graphics look better. This is why I think Microsoft is being so upfront that the next Xbox will be a major technical leap. The next generation could be the most transformative since the jump to HD. This, for me, is where gaming does feel in a rut. We know this big new toy is coming, but the industry won’t be there for another 3-4 years. Until then, companies will play it safe and do what they know works.
Overall, I don’t think gaming is in a rut, but I do think we are in a transition that is creating some slight depression among gamers who are having trouble with the new changes in the industry. I also think the industry at large is waiting for the coming toolset of AI and more to enter that next step for video games. Add in the debates on the importance of dedicated game consoles and the rise of handhelds, and it feels like the industry is almost trying to find itself again. My advice would be to embrace that we are living through gaming history, enjoy the games we have and are coming, and remember that sometimes it's best to take a break from all of this when it affects your mental health. Let’s see how the industry goes over the next few years. There are going to be some for the history books.