Opinion - Xbox's Crisis of Confidence

Gamers Don't Trust Xbox

So, I want to speak to you first tonight about a subject even more serious than energy or inflation. I want to talk to you right now about a fundamental threat to American democracy.

I do not mean our political and civil liberties. They will endure. And I do not refer to the outward strength of America, a nation that is at peace tonight everywhere in the world, with unmatched economic power and military might.

The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation.

President Jimmy Carter / July 15, 1979

On July 15, 1979, President Jimmy Carter, faced with record low approval ratings, driven by government inaction, rising record crime rates, oil shocks, high inflation, and a man that many Americans considered to be a good man, but out of his depth, made what has become his most famous speech in his political career. Carter came into office in 1976 promising to heal the scars of Vietnam and Watergate. He was a good man. I would dare to say one of the top three greatest human beings to occupy the office. A profound Christian faith drove him, and I mean the real work that focuses on actually following the teachings rather than reciting verses while ignoring them, but a man who quickly became entangled in constant crises. It didn’t help that Carter found himself not just arguing with the Republican Party, but was seen as too slow to revive the New Deal era policies by his Democratic Party, with future President Joe Biden as one of his few friends in Washington. With plummeting approval ratings and the 1980 election looking dire, Carter sought to regain control and salvage his legacy.

The President did everything in his power to make sure he delivered the message he wanted. He summoned all kinds of advisors and leaders, from civil rights activists to politicians to religious leaders, as well as many of the most important members of his circle, to give him their honest opinions during a lengthy retreat at Camp David. Carter emerged from the retreat and delivered what is now known as the Crisis of Confidence speech, also known by some as the Malaise speech. In it, he wasn’t afraid to call out the road that led to the crisis, from the assassinations of leaders in the 1960s, to the Vietnam War’s reveal of the sins of war, to the energy and inflation crisis. He also pulled a Truman and wasn’t afraid to call out the American people themselves. He highlighted the rise of consumption and consumerism, as well as the shift in focus from the community to the individual. At the time, it was a speech that, for a slight second, seemed to have Americans agreeing with him, only for them to quickly turn against it as it felt like Carter was preaching and lecturing to them. Carter did get a brief bump during the initial days of the Iran Hostage crisis. Still, it fell apart as the nation entered recession, the hostages weren’t rescued, and Reagan’s charisma proved too much against the preacher, who came off too serious.

That speech, much like the man’s own legacy, is viewed differently today. When I first started following the history of American Presidents in Middle School (nerd alert), Jimmy Carter was remembered by most historians as one of the lower ranked Presidents, referred to by some as the Hoover of liberals who brought on the Reagan conservative revolution. The speech was viewed as a disastrous one, marking the beginning of the end. However, as is often the case with history, legacies can rise and fall over time. Today, Carter tends to be placed right in the middle or lower middle of rankings. Historian Richard Norton Smith, a favorite of mine, has called him the unluckiest President to have occupied the White House. Carter is remembered as a great man who had issues handling crises, but handled them as best as he could and still got some good things done, such as the historic Camp David Accords. His time of peace and fight for human rights are often discussed in relation to his life. He also became a symbol of hope after his term, as he focused on building homes for the homeless, preaching on Sundays in Georgia, and potentially eradicating a disease in Africa. When he passed away, it was a brief moment of unity in today’s divided country, as we came together to remember him.

The speech, meanwhile, is more fondly remembered today. Many of the things he pointed out are still with us to this day, and it’s one of the most honest and straightforward moments a President gave us. Today, we question the confidence of America, still wondering if what was taught in schools still applies. So, why do I share this history lesson with you? As someone who believes history can teach us many things, I believe that Xbox is facing its own crisis of confidence. Much like the United States in the 1970s, it’s not that the brand is doing poorly when it comes to riches or the people that use the Xbox platforms, but it’s the prestige and image that has taken a hit, and it feels like it’s not going to get better anytime soon… if at all.

Microsoft’s Xbox Game Pass price hike was the final straw for many

The peak of the Xbox brand was the tail end of the original console and through the Xbox 360. Microsoft and the Xbox team of the time busted their assess to take on powerhouses Sony and Nintendo, and with a bit of luck, thanks to some Sony fumbles, they created their most successful console in the Xbox 360. In fact, I have always argued, with respect to the PS3, that the 360 is the closest thing to an NES or PS1 of the HD Generation. It set the standard for the modern HD era. It was responsible for the explosion of mainstream multiplayer online gaming and the establishment of many of the current industry norms. However, it seems like something happened as they began to develop the 360’s successor. Much like the United States had to deal with constant shocks that shattered its views of peace, war, and life in the country right before Carter came to office, the Xbox brand would completely shift to a new goal that shattered what the Xbox brand had been.

The Xbox One was designed primarily to be the ultimate entertainment device, rather than the ultimate gaming console, like its two predecessors. The Xbox One’s reveal was all about TV, and the games came later. After being the ones who were high-fiving each other when Sony announced the PS3 price, they were the villains as Sony was seen as the hero when they announced the PS4’s price and the absence of DRM. This would lead to Phil Spencer becoming the head of the Xbox and what I would call a decade plus of an identity crisis.

Now, I have defended Spencer many times and even wrote an article comparing him to Michael Eisner, who literally saved the Walt Disney Company in the 1980s and ushered in the Disney decade of the 90s that many of my generation grew up with. However, I pointed out in that same article that Eisner did leave a villain and was ousted by Walt’s own nephew. The main problem is that every time we think we understand what Phil and Xbox are doing, they seem to change direction. Now, I would also defend Phil here to point out that at the start of the current generation, I do believe they did have a clear path. Many other fans of the platform and I felt the future was bright. The problems start to show around 2022. That problem would come in the most ironic way possible. As they say, be careful what you wish for.

For a long time, we heard that Microsoft wasn’t involved enough in really pushing and caring about Xbox since the 360 days. Eventually, Microsoft and its top executives did start to care and gave Phil a blank check to acquire studios. It evolved further after Microsoft unveiled Game Pass, introducing the closest thing we have to a Netflix for video games. Just when it couldn’t get crazier, Microsoft acquired Bethesda. When I say it felt like the future looked bright, it looked bright! However, it does seem that the switch-up occurred when the shocking news of Microsoft’s massive acquisition of Activision-Blizzard broke. The battle for the merger became so fierce that Microsoft’s elite got involved, and after millions of dollars, they won. The problem? Microsoft just busted their ass to give their gaming brand $75 billion to expand their publishing label, which means they wanted a return and quick.

The Xbox Series consoles

The Xbox Series consoles initially had a strong launch and were ahead of the Xbox One in terms of days since launch. That began to change in 2023 as the systems began a streak of selling worse and worse. It’s a shame, too, because I like these consoles a lot. The Series S, despite all the complaints, is a little system that I consider a great gateway for kids and casuals into the current generation. The Series X is a brilliantly designed console, and my wife busted her ass to surprise me with one for Christmas 2020. I was knee deep in the Game Pass and Xbox ecosystem, and while I did get a PS5 eventually, and I love me my Switch, the Xbox Series X has been my most used system in the last five years. However, facts are facts, and the system began to fall behind in sales.

Microsoft seemed to freak out, as they wanted to ensure their games generated revenue, so they began to loosen the exclusivity of titles. Now, I personally have zero issue with this because I do believe the future is no exclusives, but I do understand how that did start to bring problems and questions from some of their long time loyal customers. Remember, the majority of the gaming consumer base comes from an era of “console wars,” so not engaging in a so-called war feels weird to us. Still, despite some backlash, Microsoft pressed on and Xbox was delivering some awesome announcements, leading to a killer lineup of games such as Avowed, South of Midnight, Doom: The Dark Ages, and The Outer Worlds 2.

With the election of Donald Trump, who joined Grover Cleveland as the second President to lose re-election but come back, he brought a new economic philosophy for his second term. Rather than do the typical conservative obsession with tax cuts, mainly for the rich, he instituted tariffs due to his out of nowhere obsession with former President William McKinley (ironic if you look up how McKinley promoted multiculturalism). Trump was hoping to replicate the boom period that followed the Panic of 1893, which helped put McKinley in office, by instituting the biggest tariff hikes since those of Herbert Hoover, pointing out that McKinley had done the same. The problem, of course, is that we were operating under a different type of economy, one focused on trade and less global. The results, along with the post-COVID inflation, have led to a spike in prices across the board, especially for tech products. This has led to a more expensive Switch 2, a $50 hike for the PS5, and ultimately not one but two price hikes for the Xbox Series consoles. However, I have far more issues with the Series consoles’ hikes than the others.

When the PS5 is available at a starting price of $499, and the Xbox Series X has a starting price of $599, with a $649 price for the disc drive version, and $800 for the 2 TB model, that goes beyond blaming tariffs. Plus, if those price hikes don’t hurt, the sudden surge of retail stores announcing clearance sales and wanting to get rid of the systems, it feels like Spencer and Satya are purposely trying to kill the hardware. There is zero chance that this doesn’t become the worst-selling full year of an Xbox console. I don’t see the final number of units sold for 2025 being very good. But you know what? We had Game Pass, and that was such a good deal that maybe that high price was worth it. Well… then Game Pass got a 50% price hike, and the feeling of a great bargain took a hit. For many, that price hike was the last straw.

Recently, there was a rumor that Xbox was not doing a next-gen system. Although it was clarified that the rumor wasn’t true, and Microsoft reminded us that three months ago, they announced a partnership for next-gen silicon with AMD, what we should focus on is how many people shrugged their shoulders and said they saw it coming. I’m not talking about baseless Sony Ponys and Nintendo fanboys; I saw some prominent fans of the brand do the same. Can you blame them? We have seen price hikes, clearance sales, and Gears coming to PlayStation… it makes sense that many see a repeat of Sega here. Do I believe we will have more Xbox hardware? Yes. My prediction is that we will see third-party manufactured consoles next year, followed by a first-party console in 2027. You can’t back off the AMD announcement and contracts, and R&D is underway; that doesn’t just disappear in one day. The future is clear. We will get more hardware.

The ROG Xbox Ally is the first non Microsoft manufactured Xbox platform

Still, the confidence in the platform isn’t there. The parasocial relationship that fans and media had with people like Phil disappeared this year, and I don’t think it will come back. Even if we surprisingly got an interview, and I say this with respect to people like Parris Lilly or Ryan McCaffrey who could end up with one, it’s going to be corporate speak with no answers. It won’t be enough. Hell, even Ryan is taking off the partisan glasses and has published a scathing article calling the Xbox Series legacy as greed. I will conclude by drawing on President Carter's example and briefly explaining why there is a crisis and what Microsoft needs to do to address it. If they fail to do so, the crisis will continue to escalate, and they will ultimately lose the industry's trust.

Gamers, specifically loyal Xbox consumers, have seen projects canceled, studios closed, and Game Pass prices increased. They’re seeing this as Sarah Bond talks about record setting revenue and profits. You don’t shut people up and finally confirm Game Pass is profitable, and then hike the price. Phil and the team have said they were not going to go beyond four games for exclusivity, but we now know they lied and were testing the market. They told us that everything is an Xbox, making the want to get the console less, so why not raise the price and really give me fewer reasons to buy one. Xbox is thriving, they tell us! But, then we lay off thousands because Microsoft needs to git those sweet numbers to fund the bubble that is AI.

It seems like the executives for Xbox have just been lying to our faces for years, and quite frankly, we’ve let them get away with it. I know, there’s the anti-Xbox type that screams “I told you!” but let’s hold our bridges right there because Sony and Nintendo aren’t exactly clean either. The difference is that Microsoft DID have an identity for its fans to defend. You bought a system that was a clear alternative to PlayStation, you had your Xbox names and franchises, and you had Game Pass, which became the core of the platform. Rather than build on that, let’s have multiple devices, own multiple publishing labels, and focus on revenue over consumers. Oh yeah, that’s if they stick to the new plan, because they may change that anyway by the time the next consoles come out.

To be clear, I don’t even think this is all bad either. I like the idea of multiple devices, and the exclusive content doesn’t bother me. There is a small part of me that understands that Game Pass did need a price raise. But I sit here and I think about whether I can recommend the Xbox platform to someone who wants to get into gaming. This is someone who can’t afford a high-end gaming PC, or understand what that entails. I can recommend a Switch 2 if they want the classic Nintendo titles and a system to share with their kids. I can recommend the PlayStation because it has a pricey but affordable price and a solid ecosystem. However, I have trouble recommending an Xbox. It’s too expensive, there are questions about the future of their hardware, the messaging is awful, and it feels like the brand is becoming increasingly a high-income platform rather than something for the middle class. I can’t sit here, despite my love for the brand, and recommend at the current moment that someone get involved with the Xbox ecosystem.

It feels like the last two years and counting have been a barrage of bad news from Xbox. We get the top leaders to calm things down, and yet everything they said to calm us down is proven false because they lied. Don’t get me wrong, I know this goes beyond gaming, and other factors are making Xbox this way, but the buck has to stop. The confidence is as much on the leadership as it is on the brand. I not only can't trust the platform, but I also can’t trust Phil Spencer or Sarah Bond. The Xbox’s crisis of confidence is its own doing, and the hole it’s in is going to either take a long time to climb out of, or it will consume the brand like a black hole.

I’m not ready to give up on Xbox just yet. I have a Series X and I will still play it. I will still celebrate the 25th anniversary of Xbox next year, and I will look forward to their events. But let’s be clear, my trust rating for the brand is near zero right now. Quite frankly, much like the more serious state of the country today, I think it’s going to take a really long time to come back from this. But at least with the country, we the people have the power to fix things; for Xbox, it’s going to come down to whether Microsoft or its fans care enough to fix it.

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