The Game of the Year Chase
Predicting the Nominees and Winner
I’m putting my chips in and predicting the nominees and the most likely winner of Geoff Keighley’s Game Awards show. I’ll be looking at this from a chance standpoint, going from not likely to in the bubble to lock in on my pick as the favorite to win it all. I’ve been actively predicting the winner of the Game Awards seriously since 2022 and have a perfect record. I use a combination of reviews, media reactions, podcasts, social media talk, and general vibes, and it’s led me down the right path every time. Will the streak continue? Let’s find out.
No Chance, Sorry
Games that have had good reception but won’t be in the mix
South of Midnight - As much as I personally loved this game and it will be on my personal favorites list at the end of the year, I do know its reception was held back by its generic, disappointing gameplay. While I would categorize the combat as generic rather than boring, many did find it boring. It’s definitely more of a story-driven game, and I do expect it to get some nominations for other categories, but not the big one.
Wanderstop - I haven’t played this game yet, but it does have a good reception, and I’ve seen many mutuals praise it. That being said, despite some praise and good social media mindshare it won’t have any chance to get in. However, it could sneak in for Best Indie Game.
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered - Despite this game being hailed as a great remaster (or remake to some people’s eyes), it won’t get in due to how stacked the year is. I do think in a much weaker year, it may at least have reached the bubble.
Elden Ring: Neightreign - This will be the first time that a From Software soulslike missed the big award, primarily due to being a spinoff that’s not going to be for everyone, including some in the souls community like me. From Software may have dominated the awards for a while, but we may be entering an era where that dominance may be fading a bit.
Mario Kart World - The consensus on Mario Kart World is that it’s a solid Mario Kart game that will definitely get a lot of play time, especially among family and friends, for years to come, but that it wasn’t the game changer the game needed to be. I agree with that; it’s a solid game and very fun to play with my daughter, but given the sameness to other entries in the series, it won’t even make it to the bubble. I do see a Best Multiplayer or Best Family game nomination.
Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater - Another solid remake from Konami, but unlike Silent Hill 2, I didn’t see the midnshare and other factors I needed to see with it. The developers should be proud of what they achieved here, but in such a stacked year it’s not going to sniff the award.
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle - This one hurts because I really liked this game, and it was an escape for me as I dealt with a depressing holiday, the fallout of the election, and a burst pipe in my house. If it came out in the actual 2025 year and weren’t so stacked, it would have a chance, but I think this one has a chance with nominations for other awards in the show.
You Never Know
Don’t bet on these, but if a surprise happened it wouldn’t shock me
Assassin’s Creed Shadows - When this came out, I saw the signs of a contender, but they quickly fizzled out as other titles came later. I think in a weaker year, this would be a shoe-in, especially because past entries in the franchise have gotten the nomination several times, but I think it missed it this time.
Avowed - Despite its solid reception, the consensus is that it’s a toned-down Elder Scrolls experience, and I think the game's digital-only release hurt its reach, as I saw online many who refused to pick it up unless Microsoft made a physical copy. This is definitely a favorite of mine this year, but not getting the big one.
Monster Hunter Wilds - The Monster Hunter franchise has a ridiculous and powerful fan base, but it’s never been one to be in Game of the Year conversations. Despite an incredible reception, the chances of this making it are a dark horse at best.
Borderlands 4 - I don’t think Randy Pitchford did this game any favors, and even if he kept his mouth shut, the type of year it’s been would make this one a long shot to get nominated. This is another case, like many on this list, where a weaker year would have benefited it.
The Outer Worlds 2 - This is coming out when I publish this article, and it's getting a good reception, but I don’t think it has a chance to go in. I’m betting this one would make it into the bubble in a bigger ballot, however.
In the Bubble
High chance of nomination or would make it on a bigger ballot
Blue Prince - I’m not as sure as others are that this will make the nomination, but I’m not blind to the hype it has. I personally didn't feel this game, and of what I’ve played this year, it’s my least favorite. That being said, I have it in the bubble for good reasons.
Silent Hill f - The Silent Hill franchise is indeed back, and this latest entry proved it. The reception has been great, and I’ve seen the social media mindshare for it, giving me evidence that it’ll be remembered as a classic of the generation. It could be just enough to sneak into the big one.
And Roger - Some are going to say this is too high and shouldn’t be in the bubble, but using my personal metrics to guess the nominees and winner, I think this is getting slept on. That being said, I do think it would’ve had a better chance in a weak year rather than this one. However, if enough in the media played this and felt its impact, I could see it sneak in silently. If I’m right about this one being a media darling behind the scenes, it should have a chance for Games for Impact or Best Indie.
Ghost of Yotei - I’m almost done with this game, and I can already tell you it’s going to be in the running for my favorite game of the year; however, I do think the game being so similar to its predecessor is what’s going to hold it back. Once again, in a weaker year, it’s got a much better chance than this year. That being said, this is one I would have zero shock if it found itself in. Also, look out for Erika Ishii getting a Best Performance nomination here.
Hades II - The hype for this game is off the charts, even if it’s not my bag. I almost put this in locked in territory, but because of the stacked year, it could always split votes and miss getting in. On a bigger ballot, it would be a lock.
Hollow Knight: Silksong - Another one that almost made it to the locked-in category, but I’m being careful. The reviews for this game were off the charts, but the debate around its difficulty did hurt it in my view. That being said, if I had to bet on any of the ones in this category getting in, it would be this one. I do think it will be in multiple other award nominations.
Split Fiction - A lot of people are convinced this is locked in, but I feel the stacked year prevents it from getting that confidence for me. I know these games from Fares are beloved, including It Takes Two, which won the 2021 Game of the Year (an upset, in my opinion), but unlike that game, this is not an open year.
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II - Like Split Fiction, I see a lot of confidence in this game, but I don’t personally feel it’s locked in like that. Would it shock me to see it there? No. However, I do think this could have been largely forgotten or barely made the ballot by many of the voters.
Locked In
Will be nominated
Donkey Kong Bananza - Nintendo always tends to have at least one game make it, and this time around, it's the return of the big ape who set the company on a path to video game history. I think this is the favorite for Best Family Game, and it’s set to get the nomination for Game of the Year. It’s good to see Donkey Kong back among the elite.
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach - Hideo Kojima getting a nomination for Game of the Year isn’t a shock considering his history, and unlike the first game which barely snuck in considering how polarizing it was in the early days, this one got great reception and is sure to get other nominations, including Troy Baker in the Best Performance category (“He can’t keep getting away with this!”). Despite what some will tell you, this won’t get in just because of Geoff and Hideo’s friendship. I see, through my research, that this is a genuinely loved game.
The One to Beat
My pick to win it all
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 - A little sneak peek at how I’ve been able to guess the correct Game of the Year winner since I started trying in 2022. I use methods similar to those Oscar fans use to predict the Best Picture winner. I look at a combination that includes critical reception, audience reception, social media numbers, how big-name gaming personalities talk about the game, and other factors. This is how I came to see Tears of the Kingdom as the favorite in 2023 until Baldur’s Gate III took the world by storm. I also acknowledge that the story of a game and its impact on the industry is another point that helps make a winner. For example, I believe Sekiro won, despite its difficulty and relative inaccessibility, because the voters wanted to acknowledge what From Software had been doing. Look at cultural events outside of the industry as well, and you’ll start to pick up little things that matter more than you would think. An example of this is It Takes Two winning in 2021, the first year of the Biden administration, making sense when you consider its message after the angry years of the Trump administration (which, unfortunately, has made a comeback).
All that is to say, that I see a perfect storm that makes Expedition 33 the one to beat. I would legitimately have my mouth open in shock if it lost. I wouldn’t be in shock because I want it to win, I love the game, but I have some issues with it, specifically the third act, which is preventing it from reaching my number one spot. I would be shocked because all the metrics are there for it to win. The game’s reception is in territory that we’ve seen with icons like Ocarina of Time, the social media mindshare has made it to a cult status, the rest of the awards should have this game dominate it everywhere from art direction to performance to director, the plot is about a feeling of doom but still fighting in hopes to end it (similar to how many of us feel today). The behind the scenes story on how this game was made in a year filled with layoffs and corporate speak. The recipe is there and I don’t see this being beat. I think this is the Game of the Year winner when it's all over.
Really great break down, well done.