Opinion - The 2024 Game of the Year TGA Nominees

My impressions on the Game Awards in 2024

The Game Awards are always a bit of a lightning rod whenever I bring them up. On the one hand, they are the closest thing we have to the Oscars regarding a significant event the average consumer can watch and follow for the video game industry. However, the show is led by the polarizing Geoff Keighley and is presented more in an MTV Movie Awards fashion. The main criticism of the show is that it feels like a corporatized giant advertising show that feeds into the ego of Geoff Keighley, who, for better or worse, has become a major face for the industry. I have mixed feelings about the event, as I like the game reveals and the industry showcase, but I am not so big on Geoff leading it. The show has a history of breezing through winners and focusing on celebrity appearances and random musical numbers. That being said, I accept all the bad and consider it the best showcase for the industry. I hope that eventually, we will get something as huge as The Game Awards but with more respect for the industry in the near future.

I will say that TGA does a good job of getting a feel for what mainstream gamers see as the top picks for the year. I’ve talked before about some of my criticisms of the Oscars, although admittedly, they have slightly improved when it comes to showcasing more mainstream films. This year, however, it seems TGA is the least populist I’ve seen, and it has added some debate on what even deserves to be given a nomination. So, I will quickly run down my initial thoughts on the nominations and try to guess who is the favorite to walk away with the top prize.

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Debate around Nominations

Two games have become hot topics for their nominations—the DLC expansion to Elden Ring, Shadow of the Erdtree, and the roguelike poker title Balatro. I’ve seen the community split on allowing a DLC expansion in the Game of the Year discussion. While I respect the opinion of those who don’t mind, I personally am not the biggest fan of the decision. I favor a best DLC category since expansions are a normal part of modern video games. I also admit that I have a personal bias when I judge the Game of the Year. I am a single-player guy, and I don’t play a lot of multiplayer titles outside of the fun pick-up and play Nintendo titles. So when I think Game of the Year, I think of single-player titles with at least a story to follow. This is why Balatro getting a nomination gets a bit of a side-eye from me. To this day, I’m still sour about Overwatch winning the 2016 Game of the Year. Although I’ll be the first to admit that in the past Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros. titles, I’ve been okay with getting the nomination, so it could just be a personal preference thing.

This a year that I was fully expecting to be disappointed after the monster that was 2023. However, it’s been a solid year, thanks to a strong second half. So, I think better games could take the spots of Shadow of the Erdtree, Black Myth: Wukong, and Balatro. I’m surprised some games like Yakuza: Infinite Wealth and Dragon Age: The Veilguard didn’t get as many nominations as I feel they deserve. Dragon Age, in particular, feels like it got completely shafted, not even earning any Best Performance or Art Direction nominations. Dragon’s Dogma II is another game I remember getting a lot of game of the year hype, yet it seems to have also been snubbed. Instead, we are left with solid titles like Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, the acclaimed Metaphor: ReFantazio, and Astro Bot. But I feel the rest of the lineup could’ve been better; maybe squeezing The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom in there would have left a better taste for me. Although, again, that’s my favorite game of the year so far, so there is bias in that opinion.

This looks more like a less mainstream Game Awards in terms of game of the year nominations, but the rest of the nominations do look more mainstream, despite some snubs. I always had FF VII Rebirth as the runaway favorite for the top prize, but games like Astro Bot and Metaphor started to challenge that perception. So now it’s time to look at these nominees and see which could be the Game of the Year.

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Astro Bot - 80 % chance

I’m currently playing this game, and it’s living up to the hype. Astro Bot has been a much-needed entry in a genre dominated by Nintendo. This one seems to me as the closest possible game to getting my favorite mark. Many gaming media and consumers have fallen in love with it, and I’ve even seen some hardcore Xbox media praise it. That being said, I wonder if this game is mostly here due to the media and may not get enough votes to get it to the finish line. If I have to decide, I would say it’s the slight favorite. My mind could change between now and the event, but I’m leaning on Astro Bot winning it all.

Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree - 75 % chance

The most controversial nomination is the DLC expansion Shadow of the Erdtree. Elden Ring ran away with awards in 2022 and became a consequential video game. The two-time winning From Software may add a third Game of the Year award, though it’s an expansion instead of a new game. Now, this expansion is so big that it’s the size of one-third of a full Elden Ring playthrough, and there’s a lot to explore and do. You can make the case this is the greatest DLC expansion in video game history. That being said, many like me feel a DLC expansion has no business getting a Game of the Year nomination. Despite this, I think it’s Astro Bot’s main rival to win it all. That would join Overwatch as a game of the year winner I’m not crazy about, more on principle than the quality of the game.

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 70 % chance

This one is the game I had as the favorite for most of the year until that opinion began to wane recently. It’s still a highly reviewed game and tied with the most nominations. However, I do feel many voters will want something less predictable. One thing that helped Baldur’s Gate 3 push past Tears of the Kingdom is that it gave a new, less predictable game to vote for. Due to his, I don’t think this one is the odds-on favorite. Can I see it pulling it out? Yes. Would I put my life savings on it? No.

Metaphor: ReFantazio - 55 % chance

Metaphor: ReFantazio has become a massive hit and took my social media by storm after its release. I was skeptical about getting the nomination because TGA can be pretty Western-focused, with Nintendo and From Software breaking through. However, considering the ridiculously high Metacritic and review scores, the gaming community obviously loves this game. I have yet to play it, but everyone I follow has only raved about it. While I don’t think it’s a favorite to win, it's the one I can see winning due to vote splitting and getting a last-minute push from fans and voters.

Black Myth: Wukong - 45 % chance

The surprise of the lot in this list is Black Myth: Wukong. Outside of some early reviews, I never thought this would be a game of the year contender. It seems there were enough people on the panel and the media who loved it enough to make it here. While I know some gamers liked this game, I don’t see this one winning the prize. It’s not impossible, but I don’t see it. If anything, this is the game most questioned for being here.

Balatro - 25 % chance

I am well aware that this game became a darling in the gaming media, influencer community, and social media gamers, but I do think it is the least likely to win the award. I would be more shocked by this winning than when It Takes Two won. I have yet to play this one, and I’m sure it’s a quality game, but Game of the Year? I don’t see it.

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Final Thoughts

If I were forced to pick a favorite, at the current moment, it would be Astro Bot. However, it's an extremely slight favorite. I see Shadow of the Erdtree controversially winning it or Final Fantasy VII Rebirth proving it always deserved its heavily favored status at the start of the year. Could there be a surprise? Of course. If there is one, I see Metaphor as the game that pulls it out. I’ll revisit this for the next few weeks and make final predictions on the winners, including the other nominations. We are ending what has personally been a very stressful year, though a better-than-expected gaming year. Let’s see who walks out with the prize.